A Personal Review of World Issues in 2020

Where to start?

The United Kingdom – I’m a Journalist with a Classics Degree….

At the beginning of 2020 the newly installed, huge majority Conservative government was effervescent having gained control with a strong mandate to complete the postponed divorce from the European Union.  What could possibly go wrong?  A rhetorical question as we all know the answer.  It’s important to understand that the new government (i.e. Ministers) was formed of supporters of the (Brexit-supporting) Prime Minister (PM), with many inexperienced members put into critical roles and experienced ministers put out to pasture.

We saw how China reacted to the outbreak in Wuhan, then it took off in Northern Italy whilst the UK’s scientific advisors and government vacillated through February and March.  My last rugby match (I referee) was in West London in the middle of March 2020.  It was very busy.  There was a large touch rugby competition with several hundred players, a friendly match against a touring side from Spain and then my league match.  We all ended up in the clubhouse no-doubt sharing Covid liberally, as it was almost certainly endemic in London at this time.  Somehow I didn’t get infected in March but I made up for this by picking up the bug (with mild symptoms) at another rugby event in September.

The story of Covid in the UK can be summed up as governmental mismanagement with private sector success.  The mismanagement stemmed from too late and poor scientific advice (see: Review of Imperial College's Infamous Report-9), directly leading to the fateful lockdowns, which succeeded in reducing the infection rate and, most importantly, prevented the National Health Service (NHS) from being swamped.  The strategy was presented with a snappy one liner: “Stay Home, Protect the NHS & Save Lives”.  In the spring the first two happened very successfully; however, the government was surprised (shocked?) to find that the most important objective failed quite dismally; loads of unnecessary lives lost, some through crass mismanagement.  The first strategy deliberately used fear to get everyone to stay at home.  This is very effective but very difficult to unwind as the government found out when they tried to get people to act “normally” in the early summer.  Having told people they would either die, or kill someone if they got within 2 metres, the flock took this extremely seriously.  How do you then tell the same flock that in fact you can interact with less than a 2 metre distance?  Credibility ran out quite quickly, except for the absolutely terrified folk who are still quite confused and still terrified, today.

The government’s official science committee, the Science Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) came under increasing scrutiny as it became obvious that the UK had dropped the ball in terms of understanding Covid.  In early spring the PM clearly didn’t understand the situation and got infected, with fairly severe symptoms.  SAGE’s stated role was to provide the science to the government who then formulates policy.  The head of SAGE repeatedly said they don’t make policies whilst the government repeatedly said the policies were based on the science. Oh dear, what a fiasco.  I came to an early conclusion, based on reviewing some of the epidemiological modelling, that SAGE was not fit for purpose; something the results appear to confirm (see: UK's Science Advice, Wrong Again?).  Dr Mike Yeadon has stated that the majority of scientists within SAGE should be fired and prevented from providing advice to the government; strong stuff, but not far off the mark? See: Dr Mike Yeadon on the Pandemic, PCR Tests & UK SAGE Group

The UK was completely unprepared for Covid, having a new, inexperienced PM, Health Minister and pretty much the rest of the Cabinet.  The PM had his trusty advisor, Dominic Cummins, (who had been instrumental in winning the 2016 Brexit referendum and the 2019 general election) installed in Downing Street.  Cummins also picked up Covid but got substantially less sympathy than the PM.  If there were a review of Cummin’s time as the PM’s senior advisor it would be brief: Could do significantly better.  Cummins was “released” from duties in the late autumn.  Unfortunately he seems to fit into the category of intelligent idiot.  If you have a campaign which he believes in, he can be incredibly effective; otherwise he’s virtually unemployable.  David Cameron, an earlier very clued-up PM, described Cummins as a “career psychopath” and limited his ability to cause havoc.

During the first lockdown there were farcical supposedly science-based strategies.  SAGE said face masks were ineffective whilst the government scrabbled to buy them from China spending billions of pounds on imported PPE.  Then, about-turn, face masks became mandatory in certain situations, but let’s not analyse what the hell was going on with the science advice; the government didn’t want Joe Public thinking masks would help when they couldn’t supply them to hospitals or care homes.  The government’s stated objective was to control the virus, which is technically futile particularly once it’s endemic in 60+ million people.  There are still some “public health experts” who consider complete eradication of the virus is a viable strategy, which is a staggering thought; a full lockdown and complete geographic isolation for 3-6 months, perhaps?

A couple of wonderful videos went viral as a result of the UK government’s attempts to control the virus using lockdowns.  The first video, "Keep Calm and Do F-all", beautifully summed up the soft propaganda behind the "Stay at Home" edict during the first lockdown.  If you’re a little sensitive then skip over watching this particular video.  

The second video, by comedian John Bishop, beautifully shreds the government’s attempts to justify certain restrictions such as closing times (10 pm), maximum group sizes (6) and the need for extensive Covid testing.

Monty Python’s song, “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life” could be an anthem for 2020 and possibly for 2021?

After the first lockdown in the spring the devolved regions, having seen the somewhat shambolic policies emanating from London, realised they had power levers labelled “Public Health”.  So the Scottish National Party (SNP) grabbed their lever and started introducing different policies ostensibly to better “control the virus”, as futile a policy as there is.  The SNP introduced different restriction frameworks to those in England; at times allowing them to prevent people from England travelling into Scotland.  I suspect this gave the SNP great pleasure to put in place a legal Covid border with England.  They had allowed pubs to reopen but not to serve alcohol, whilst pubs in England were fully open.  Would those desperate Scots head south for a dram or pint?  Wonderful.  I have the power, therefore I will use it.  The Welsh Assembly, as well as the Northern Irish, also found their public health levers and yanked them hard.  All decided they had to impose different restrictions to those in England and, surprise, surprise, failed to control the uncontrollable virus.  The lesson still hasn’t been learnt but the bill for supporting the economy (+/-£400 Billion) and value destroyed in the private sector (£1 Trillion?) makes the cost-benefit analysis look distinctly poor; not to mention the high excess deaths.

In contrast to the shambolic politics and politicised science, work on the virus’ genome and vaccines continued in the UK.  Having failed dismally in protecting the vulnerable from infection, the only respite from the government’s Covid policies was a vaccine.  A German/American vaccine won the race and as you’d expect the government piggy-backed on this success, whilst diverting attention from the futile “control the virus” policy.  The first approved vaccine was almost adopted as a British success, which it wasn’t.  Sod’s Law kicked in.  A mutated version of Covid took off in England and the Health Secretary managed to ramp up the already elevated fear factor.  Other countries then panicked, closing transport links and preventing thousands of trucks returning to France.  Yet again politicians over-reacted, slamming the door after the horse has bolted.  Déjà vu.  In December the UK started rolling out the German/American vaccine; the first country to start a vaccination programme.  There clearly were some skilful people involved in securing vaccines but the jury is out on whether the programme can be implemented efficiently.  There are signs this isn’t going as well as it could.  The higher infectiousness of the mutated virus increasing stress on the NHS and the decision to allocate 80% of the first vaccine to the elderly; when it’s the NHS that needs it most urgently, seems less than well thought out?

Through a combination of poorly thought-out scientific advice, inexperienced politicians not understanding the real science (a big ask even if this had been provided to them) and poor mixed messaging resorting to fear-based scaremongering; the UK finds itself with massive debt, huge destruction of private sector value plus, worse of all: Too many deaths.

There was some Covid-related competence in the UK’s government.  The Chancellor provided relatively efficient and effective schemes to support the economy during lockdowns.  It’s not particularly difficult, or hard to give away money; however, this was achieved quickly and effectively.  So, there was some competence.

As I write this in early January 2021 the dreaded Covid Second Wave was ramping up in the Northern Hemisphere.  Unfortunately significant mutations arrived in the last quarter of 2020, in England and South Africa, both changing the game just as vaccine programmes kick-off. Sod’s Law.  The level of government panic reached similar levels as those in March 2020 together with chaotic (shambolic?) doom-laden communications as the NHS in the UK started to come under acute pressure.  Unfortunately the NHS has lower bed capacity and staff levels than at the beginning of the pandemic; the opposite of what you would expect from a competently run organisation.  Let’s hope that the vaccines have sufficient efficacy with the virus variants, which are rapidly spreading, as I write.  If the vaccines are not as effective then 2021 could end up being worse than 2020.

Running in parallel with the pandemic was the UK’s divorce from the European Union, the deadline being the last day of 2020.  The EU managed to shoot themselves in the foot by insisting on elements which removed the whole point of the UK leaving; not very smart.  Suffice to say the negotiations went to the wire with both sides converging on a deal just before Christmas (how convenient).  The deal was a significant disappointment to the SNP because it damaged their strategy for independence.  Credit must be given to the government’s negotiators led by Lord Frost together with the PM who was able to set out the UK’s requirements and compromise where necessary.  Let’s not get too effusive with praise; negotiating a deal should be a basic competency for any government; however, as standards and competence have dropped so significantly, the EU deal looks like a monumental triumph when compared with much of the government’s other work.

Sweden – This is the Real Situation, Help us Get Through

You wouldn’t expect to find Sweden being a prominent player in a summary of global events; however, if their government hadn’t dropped the ball with respect to the elderly, Sweden would be top of the league in terms of Covid strategy.  Interestingly the strategy was pretty much a one man success but made possible by the national culture.  Anders Tegnell understood the nature of Covid and effectively guided Sweden’s response, which didn’t use lockdowns, draconian restrictions or fear-based propaganda.  You could say it provided the correct information and built a consensus that reduced transmission whilst allowing life to continue as near to normal.

If Sweden had succeeded in protecting their elderly they would be the stand-out Western country with minimal fatalities and minimal economic damage; the opposite of the UK and many other Western countries.

Well done Sweden.

The USA – Remind Me Why Rome Fell?

What a year, which fortunately ended with the right result in the presidential election.

The USA appears to be at the leading edge of democratic collapse, largely through its own failures.  When Trump was elected I felt slightly sorry for American officialdom because the domestic culture is to do what your boss tells you and not to ask questions (which is why I don’t do well in the American work culture).  If your boss is incompetent then you still have to ask how high when he say’s jump.

Republican politicians readily slipped into sycophancy, with only a very few exceptions such as Mitt Romney, who refused to support Trump, early on.  The paucity of principled Republican (as well as Democrat) politicians is one cause of America’s demise.  Since Trump’s failure to get re-elected, most Republican politicians have crept out of the brown-nose closet and decided they can now criticise the soon departing boss.

It is doubtful whether America can climb out of the big hole they have dug themselves into.  Republicans appear to want to recreate the heyday of America in the 1950-60s, which is a complete non-starter.  Remember Trump’s aim was to “Make America Great” again.  He’s overseen the opposite.

The list of Trump’s failures is too long to discuss here; however, there were a few successes; the most significant being pushing China onto the naughty step.  Exposing China’s widespread subterfuge was an overdue wake up call, highlighting the rest of the world’s blindness.  Aside from China, Trump’s failures vastly outweigh his few successes, both domestically and internationally.

It’s not widely understood but corruption is widespread; in effect institutionally embedded, in all levels of American officialdom.  Integrity is subsumed by greed and power rather like in the latter stages of the Roman Empire.  The prognosis is not good and America’s enemies are working hard to accelerate the decline.  Unfortunately, with a political system which allows amateur incompetents to become President and politicians to actively undermine policies which would benefit the country but not necessarily themselves; then extinction is looming.  The majority of the Republican Party appear to be like dinosaurs heading unknowingly into oblivion.  Hopefully the Democrats can roll back some of the destruction caused over the last four years; fingers crossed.  But with politicians forgetting they are there to serve the country, rather than their own party’s ideologies; the forecast isn’t good.

There is some good news about America.  The federal system means that competent, informed state governors can be forward looking and implement modern, necessary policies, for example, related to climate change, fossil fuel use and even health care.  So, there are pockets of light in America, but a large amount of backward-looking dinosaurs still exist.

Rampant capitalism continued in 2020.  Tesla’s market capitalisation continued into stratospheric (unsustainable?) levels whilst, more interestingly; ExxonMobil dropped out of the Dow Jones after 92 years.  Old school oil and gas drops away whilst Tech, including electric cars, get extremely frothy valuations.  Could 2021 bring a major re-balancing in value?  Quite possibly.

China – Onwards to Global (Communist) Greatness

The President continues to progress his strategy of “Making China Great” again which has one unfortunate, major blot; the origin of the Covid virus.  Being in effect a dictatorship, China’s government can do almost anything they like within their borders; however, the current President has decided this needs to extend to the rest of the World; you will acknowledge and accept China as the pre-eminent culture and power, or else….  Not typically a recipe for success.

Having Trump shine the spotlight on their trade subterfuge and call Covid the “Chinese Virus”, certainly didn’t go down well.  But the expansion programme continued apace often wielding a big stick to any country who dared to question, let alone criticise.  This is how China thinks they gain greatness by restricting imports, building military installations on sand banks within other countries’ maritime jurisdictions and so on.  Not to mention fudging the treaty on Hong Kong in order to suppress its people, or trying to wipe out the Uighur culture turning them into proper, decent Chinese people.

Life for the average Chinese person continues to improve so long as you don’t challenge or criticise the omnipotent authorities.  Savvy Chinese seem to understand the absurdity of the Communist Party and use memes (Winnie the Pooh, for the President) to subtly poke fun.  Digitalisation is leading-edge, which actually makes it easier for the government to monitor and control the population.

I suggested, during 2020, that one subtle way to counter China’s commercial dominance strategy is for countries to make it mandatory that any product manufactured or assembled in China has to be labelled as such.  In this way people will understand how many Chinese products are sold across the world and that buying these products, in effect, is supporting the Communist Party.  An easy and effective way for everyone, outside China, is to stop buying products made or assembled in China.  If you browse through Amazon the vast proportion of products are sourced from China with increasing amounts being marketed by Chinese companies.  Amazon is facilitating Chinese commerce outside China and therefore indirectly supporting the Communist Party.  This is totally fine in the American Playbook of Capitalism even though, of course, it’s actually contributing to America’s decline.  Quite ironic.

As a result of Trump’s trade war and the pandemic, many international companies operating in China have reviewed their supply chains.  Some have started re-shoring to more suitable locations.  Governments need to encourage their own companies to exit from China, whilst dissuading people from buying Chinese products until the Communist Party understands the folly of their ways.  This isn’t another Cold War, it’s an economic power-house attempting to capture the world’s commerce and in the process subvert the rest of the World to the omnipotent Communist Party.  The rest of the World only has itself to blame for letting this happen.

China’s near total suppression of Covid contrasts vividly with America’s shambolic efforts; not to mention most other Western governments’ poor performances.  If only China wasn’t the source of the virus…

Russia – We ARE a Superpower…

The Russian government continued its own programme of global greatness supporting the Syrian government, which is quite a warped understanding of “greatness”.  The Russian economy remains stuck in a time warp but the government returned to the Novichok Assassination theme by smearing the poison on Alexei Navalny’s underwear but failing to kill him.  You might remember Russia used the same poison in the UK in 2018, again failing to kill the intended victim but ending up killing an innocent person.  That time Russia brazenly presented the totally innocent (alleged perpetrators) to the international media.  Navalny, with other assistance, identified one of the perpetrators and recorded a phone conversation about how the poisoning was undertaken. Wonderful.  Now that is embarrassing for a country on the road to greatness.

As before, nothing the government says can be relied upon.

In Summary – American Dinosaurs, Pandemic Incompetence and Authoritarian Stumbles

2020 was almost totally subsumed by the pandemic, keeping China and America front and centre.

In the Middle East the main topic was constraining Iran whilst Israel’s leader tried his best not to lose power, pulling every lever possible.  Sadly, the Palestinians kept themselves out of contention whilst America encouraged reconciliations between Israel and other Arab countries; in the process trying to present this as a major breakthrough.  It’s not.

2020 was one of the hottest years on record; however, progress in decarbonising continued, which is good.  But progress needs to accelerate and with the Democrats gaining power, this may well happen.

Finally.  The world needs to understand and implement the simple process of factoring-in the total cost of pollution so that all pollution is remediated in real-time and not left as a massive burden on future generations. See: Cost of Pollution

This is Economics Rule-1.